Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Will oil reserves get drained?

We will NEVER completely drain our oil reserves. Its just a function of economics.





Assuming a constant rate of consumption and no environmental problem (such as greenhouse gases) or some other factor that affects the demand, the price of oil will have to increase as the supply diminishes. That's basic economics - supply and demand determine the price. As the price goes up, energy companies will be able to recover oil from deeper reserves, smaller reserves, more remote locations, and lower grades, as well as start providing new sources at a profit. Not only that, oil companies will be motivated to carry out exploration to look for new oil and natural gas deposits and alternative energy supplies as the price goes up.





At some point the price of oil could get so high that there will no longer be any economically recoverable oil. But its more likely that the price of oil gets so high that nobody will buy it anymore, so we go back to the supply and demand fundamentals, and the price goes down. That has the direct consequence of making better use of our conventional energy sources, increasing the use of alternative fuels and energy sources, and encouraging research into new energy technologies.





So it all comes down to affordability. People in many third world countries can't afford oil today, but in North America and Europe we are complaining but can still afford it.





There's no question we need to reduce our energy and resource demand and start making better use of our existing resources, but we will not run out of oil.


Will oil reserves get drained?
There are enough oil reserves in the U.S. to last 70-140 years without importing a drop . We also are finding more reserves every year and the technology for extraction is improving . In addition , some of the oil deposits are actually growing because our planet is creating more .


However , yes in a couple of hundred years with increased consumption there probably won't be any more oil available at a reasonable cost and we will have to switch to alternative fuel sources . However , at the moment oil is our best option because of cost and availability .Will oil reserves get drained?
For the last 40 years we have heard that a finite amount of oil exists and I remember that in 1960, some doomsayers were saying we would be out of oil by 1990. Now we know that there is allot of oil reserves out in the ocean, in Alaska, Russia has found a large oil reserve and so has China.





You and I will not live long enough to see the oil reserves drained.
The problem isn't that all oil reserves will be drained, it's that CHEAP oil reserves will be drained. We've basically used up all of our reserves that are easy to get to and now it's getting more and more expensive. Since our society relies on cheap oil to function this is going to cause us huuuuge problems.

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